The Big One: A Scenario
A major earthquake strikes Los Angeles after America’s news media have disappeared.
The following is a hypothetical scenario where the major news networks no longer exist. CBS and CNN have closed down after the Paramount/Warner Bros. merger, deciding that news operations aren’t worth the financial burden or political risk anymore. Besides, the logic went, most people get their news from social media.
The dam has broken. The other networks no longer worry about shutting down theirs, too. ABC and NBC newscasts go online only, then shut down completely because no one watches. Entire news departments simply close. They’re not needed anymore.
The cable news networks, facing declining revenue and political attacks from the administration, also shut down. Tegna/Nexstar tries to create a new news network, but it goes nowhere. No viewers. No interest. Too expensive.
The mainstream news websites, New York Times, Washington Post, all fold because of the same pressure, declining subscriber numbers, and fewer readers.
All that’s left are the fringe sites, podcasters, and social media influencers who sell news as content, and the algorithms inform them what gets viewers and clicks and what doesn’t. Mainly, outrage is the only thing that makes money.
Here is what happens in that world when an earthquake strikes Los Angeles.
Tuesday, 10:17 a.m.
The earthquake begins beneath the city.
The shaking lasts for more than two minutes.
Downtown towers sway, and older apartment buildings collapse. Sections of freeways fall. Gas lines break, and fires start across the basin. Water mains burst, leading to bigger fires. Electricity disappears across wide parts of Los Angeles County.
Cellphones issue emergency alerts. The message says: EARTHQUAKE. DROP, COVER AND HOLD ON.
Then the phones lose service.
10:18 a.m.
The first videos appear online almost immediately. When scary things happen, people are trained to whip out their phones and livestream video. This is “news.”
A security camera shows the front of a building falling onto parked cars. A livestream shows people running from a grocery store in Koreatown. A driver records a section of freeway buckling in front of him.
Millions of people repost the videos without knowing who made them. Most social media accounts aren’t verified.
One clip is real. One comes from a movie. Another shows an earthquake in Turkey from several years earlier. All three spread together. They’re hard to tell apart, and certainly for people who are used to scrolling by.
10:20 a.m.
The shaking stops.
Los Angeles is filled with sirens, alarms and car horns, spreading from the basin into the valleys.
People stand in streets holding their phones in the air, hoping to find a signal. Parents try to reach children at school. Families call relatives again and again.
A self-described journalist with three million followers posts:
MASSIVE EARTHQUAKE DESTROYS LOS ANGELES. DEATH TOLL COULD BE 100,000.
But he’s sitting in Miami. His source is a message from an anonymous account. The post reaches ten million people in six minutes.
10:24 a.m.
A MAGA account posts a video of an undamaged street in Beverly Hills.
The media wants you to believe Los Angeles was destroyed. Looks fine to me.
There is no mainstream media left to make that claim. The phrase survives from an earlier time.
The post receives thousands of replies:
California is already begging for money.
Another Democrat scam.
They’ll give it all to illegals.
10:27 a.m.
A far-left account claims the earthquake came from a secret military test under the Mojave Desert.
The account provides a map filled with red circles and arrows. The map looks official. It carries the logo of a federal agency.
The logo was added that morning.
10:31 a.m.
A large account based in Russia posts that California officials got a warning three days earlier but kept it secret to protect wealthy donors.
Another Russian-backed account posts the opposite story. It says the federal government warned California, and the governor ignored it because he wanted the disaster to happen during Trump’s presidency.
The two accounts attack each other. Both stories spread. But both accounts are part of a government operation. The goal is to create confusion and turn Americans against one another.
10:36 a.m.
Los Angeles County posts its first official message, really the only way to get anything out anymore:
Major earthquake. Expect aftershocks. Avoid damaged buildings. Emergency response underway.
Local TV stations, in that aftermath of the national news infrastructure disappearing, have few or no reporters at all. Most have shut down their news departments. There are no all-news radio stations anymore. There are talk stations, and the talk hosts are the only ones relaying news. But they’re paid to have opinions, so what they relay must be colored by whatever narrative gets ratings and listeners in their particular demos.
The replies to the L.A. message fill with insults, demands, fake casualty numbers and claims that the account has been hacked.
Some people follow the instructions. Others decide the warning is part of a government plan to force people from their homes.
10:43 a.m.
A false tsunami warning begins circulating.
The message tells people in Santa Monica, Venice and Marina del Rey to drive inland immediately.
Thousands of people get into their cars. Traffic locks up, making travel for emergency vehicles much harder on the major routes.
The false warning appears on a page designed to look like an official government account. Most people can’t tell the difference.
10:51 a.m.
A second jolt hits. Another big one.
More buildings fall. The power goes out at two hospitals. Nurses move patients into hallways. Ambulances are stuck in traffic created by the false tsunami warning.
A video shows part of a hospital ceiling collapsing.
A popular account says it’s fake, that the hospital was already abandoned and the video was staged.
11:03 a.m.
The White House social media account posts an update that doesn’t mention Los Angeles or an earthquake:
President Trump has been fully briefed on the situation in California. The administration is monitoring the situation.
There is no photograph of the president. There is no video or audio statement in his voice.
Trump has rarely appeared in public for months. The White House has offered no reason.
One group says he is working around the clock. Another says he is seriously ill. Another says he died weeks ago and administration officials are using old photographs and artificial intelligence to hide it.
Every theory has its own pictures, experts and documents backing them up. AI is so advanced it’s nearly impossible to tell what’s real.
11:18 a.m.
The Los Angeles mayor posts a short video recorded outside City Hall.
She says the damage is severe. She asks people to stay off the roads. She says the city needs immediate federal help.
The video breaks up several times because of the weak connection. A MAGA account edits together the broken frames, and “proves” the mayor used artificial intelligence to fake her appearance.
A far-left account studies the shadows behind her and decides she is speaking from a military bunker, and accuses Trump of trying to hide what’s happening in L.A. from the rest of the country.
11:42 a.m.
FEMA posts that assessment teams are being sent to California.
Users ask where the teams are coming from, when they will arrive, and how much aid has been approved.
The account just repeats the original message.
A fake federal account announces that $50 billion has already been approved. Another fake account says Trump rejected California’s request. Both messages receive more attention than the one from FEMA.
12:15 p.m.
A social media personality in Texas begins a live broadcast called: THE LOS ANGELES EARTHQUAKE HOAX
He compares current videos with scenes from disaster movies. A few images are fake. He uses those images to dismiss the rest. One hundred thousand people watch live. He tells them California wants federal money because the state has gone broke.
12:47 p.m.
A left-wing livestream claims federal rescue teams have been ordered to avoid immigrant neighborhoods. The host displays a screenshot of what he says is a real email proving it.
People in several neighborhoods become afraid to visit emergency shelters. Rumors spread that immigration agents are waiting at the doors.
Shelters in those areas remain half empty. Families sleep outdoors beside damaged buildings.
1:30 p.m.
The Los Angeles Fire Department reports widespread fires and problems with the water system. The department’s account has fewer followers than several conspiracy accounts discussing the fires.
A viral post says the fires were started by looters. Another says police started them. Another says Jewish developers started them to clear valuable land. Another blames immigrants and “antifa.”
The fires keep burning.
2:12 p.m.
The White House account posts again:
The President will protect American taxpayers from fraud, waste and abuse as California evaluates its situation.
The message says nothing about an emergency declaration. The word “fraud” becomes the main subject of the national conversation.
On Trump’s Truth Social, there are AI images of him leading fire departments rescuing people from collapsed buildings. In one, he’s carrying a child in one hand and a cute puppy in the other, walking out of a fire. A slew of other images have no connection to disasters or L.A. One shows him inside a space suit planting a gigantic flag on the Moon.
Most of his feed is AI imagery. No real text updates, not for the last few months.
3:05 p.m.
California officials estimate that hundreds of people have died. Thousands are injured. Many more are missing.
A MAGA influencer points to the changing numbers as proof of a lie. A far-left influencer says officials are hiding tens of thousands of deaths.
The rescue crews continue pulling people from collapsed buildings.
4:40 p.m.
A photograph of a crying child beside a collapsed apartment building spreads around the world. The child is real. The location is Van Nuys.
Accounts begin arguing about the child’s citizenship.
Someone creates an image showing the same child holding a Mexican flag. Someone else creates one showing her wearing a Trump hat.
The original photographer has no large platform. His correction reaches a few thousand people. The altered images reach millions.
6:00 p.m.
Night begins to fall.
Much of L.A. is dark. Fires burn in several neighborhoods. People use car radios, battery radios and phones when service becomes available.
The major radio and television networks still exist as entertainment companies. Their stations carry sports, reruns and syndicated talk shows. Their news divisions closed years earlier.
Some local stations relay government emergency messages. They have no reporters to check them. The voices people once expected to hear during a national disaster are gone.
Residents begin posting about looting. But as the accounts aren’t verified, it’s hard to know what’s real. Far-right accounts magnify the reports, while far-left accounts say there’s no looting at all.
8:30 p.m.
The White House account announces that President Trump has spoken with California officials. But California officials say they only spoke with White House staff.
No one says who spoke directly with the president.
An old photograph of Trump in the Oval Office appears with the message. Internet users examine the clock, the curtains and the papers on his desk. Some say the photograph was taken that day. Others identify it as a photograph from two years earlier.
The White House offers no explanation and won’t answer any questions about it, condemning anyone who brings it up.
11:55 p.m.
Los Angeles enters its first night. Thousands sleep in parks, cars and parking lots. Aftershocks wake them every few minutes.
Across the country, people fall asleep believing completely different versions of the day.
Some believe Los Angeles has been destroyed.
Others believe the damage covers only a few blocks.
Some believe the earthquake was created by the military.
Others believe California created the story to steal money.
Some believe Trump is directing the largest rescue effort in American history.
Others believe Trump has disappeared and unelected aides are running the country through his social media accounts.
Meanwhile, there are survivors still trapped inside damaged and collapsed buildings, but they’re running out of time.
Wednesday: Day Two
6:00 a.m.
The official death toll from city officials reaches 1,100.
Several hospitals are full. Parts of Los Angeles have no water. Grocery stores are empty. Freeway damage has slowed the movement of food and fuel.
A government account says federal supplies are on the way, but they don’t say when. Questions about that are ignored.
8:15 a.m.
A convoy of trucks is filmed near Phoenix. MAGA accounts say it proves Trump has already saved Los Angeles. Left-wing accounts say the trucks are carrying soldiers who will place the city under military rule.
The trucks are carrying bottled water, portable toilets and medical supplies.
They reach the California border that afternoon. A false post that looks like it came from an official city account sends them to the wrong distribution center.
10:30 a.m.
The governor asks for a major disaster declaration.
The White House account says California must provide a full accounting of previous federal funds before additional money can be released.
The request begins moving through government offices.
Nobody hears from Trump.
1:00 p.m.
A video shows people looting food from a damaged supermarket. Right-wing accounts call it an organized immigrant riot. Left-wing accounts call it a police trap.
The video shows neighborhood residents carrying food outside before the damaged roof falls. Some people pay with cash left on the counter. Some steal.
The full video, some fifteen minutes long, receives little attention. The shortest and angriest version dominates the feeds. And that is only about 20 seconds.
5:00 p.m.
A celebrity posts that Los Angeles needs help. The message raises millions of dollars.
Fake accounts copy the celebrity’s name and photograph. They collect donations through cryptocurrency and payment apps.
The money disappears.
9:00 p.m.
A rumor says another, larger earthquake will strike at midnight. Scientists post that earthquakes cannot be predicted that way. Their replies fill with people calling them liars.
Thousands leave shelters and get into cars. Roads jam again. Families spend the night driving toward Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego.
Midnight arrives. An aftershock shakes the city at 12:07 a.m. Aftershocks have been rumbling ever since the first quake, but the rumor becomes a prophecy.
Thursday: Day Three
The president remains out of sight.
The White House account posts a message in Trump’s usual style:
California’s leaders have failed for years. We will help the great PEOPLE of California while making sure CROOKED POLITICIANS don’t steal a dime!
Some people believe Trump wrote it. Others say an aide wrote it. Others say a computer wrote it. The message becomes federal policy anyway.
On Trump’s Truth Social, his account posts an AI picture of a bulked-up muscular Trump beating up a skinny, frightened-looking California governor.
Aid is approved in small pieces. Each shipment requires new paperwork and new public arguments. The mayor says the delays are costing lives.
Trump administration and Republican congressional accounts say California is refusing to cooperate.
Screenshots of letters circulate. Dates are cropped out. Signatures are blurred. Entire documents are created from scratch. Every side has its own evidence.
Friday: Day Four
The national conversation turns toward blame.
Old videos of homeless camps are presented as earthquake shelters. Photographs of damaged buildings from the 1994 Northridge earthquake appear as current destruction. Images from Gaza and Ukraine are labeled Los Angeles.
Russian accounts push every version. One tells conservatives that California elites are stealing aid. Another tells progressives that federal agents are allowing people of color to die. Another tells Black residents that Latino residents are receiving special treatment. Another tells Latino residents that Black neighborhoods are taking all the supplies.
The goal is anger. And it works better than it ever did before.
Fights break out at two aid centers after rumors say the centers are running out of water. The rumors create the shortage they warned about.
Saturday: Day Five
A rescue crew pulls three people alive from an apartment building. The video should bring the country together. The feeds take it apart.
One group says the rescue was staged. Another says the crew waited because the victims were immigrants. Another studies the uniforms and says foreign troops are operating in Los Angeles.
The rescue workers stop reading the comments.
Sunday: Day Six
Churches, mosques, synagogues, neighborhood groups and ordinary residents build their own supply systems.
They write addresses and needs on pieces of cardboard. Amateur radio operators pass messages across the city. Bicycle riders carry medicine through blocked streets. Restaurants cook whatever food remains before it spoils.
These local systems begin saving lives.
They also create new rumors. One group is accused of favoring its own members. Another is accused of hiding weapons. A third is accused of collecting names for the government.
Trust survives mostly among people who can see one another face to face. Many people inside the disaster zone stop arguing online. Survival takes all their time. Their voices fade from the national feed.
Monday: Day Seven
One week has passed.
The official death toll is more than 6,000. Tens of thousands remain missing. Hundreds of thousands have left their homes.
Congress begins debating emergency aid. Members enter the debate with different casualty figures, different damage estimates and different stories about the federal response.
One side calls the package a bailout for Democratic leaders. Another calls the delay an attempt to punish a city filled with liberals and immigrants.
The proposed aid package gets smaller.
Conditions inside Los Angeles get worse.
Week Two
The fires are mostly under control. Water service remains broken in large parts of the city. Damaged hospitals move patients to other counties.
Insurance companies begin sending messages to homeowners. Claims are delayed while inspectors struggle to reach damaged areas.
A viral rumor says every undocumented resident will receive a free house before American citizens get help. Another says the federal government plans to seize damaged homes and sell them to Trump supporters.
Both stories spread faster than instructions explaining how to apply for aid.
Fraud appears. People submit fake claims. Contractors take deposits and vanish. Landlords collect relief money while tenants remain in damaged buildings. Each real case becomes proof that every victim is corrupt.
Week Three
The president still hasn’t made a public appearance.
The White House releases a short video showing Trump seated behind a desk. He speaks for 28 seconds about California fraud instead of the quake or its victims. His voice sounds flat. His face looks strange.
Experts argue over whether the video is real. Some find signs of computer generation. Others say the lighting and video compression created the odd look.
It’s a recorded video, with no one there to ask questions.
The question of Trump’s health begins to compete with the earthquake itself.
Week Four
Congress approves a limited relief package.
The money covers emergency work and part of the cleanup. The larger rebuilding plan remains tied up in investigations, lawsuits and political demands.
Federal accounts announce that Los Angeles has received everything it requested.
California accounts announce that Washington has abandoned the city.
Residents see checks that have not arrived, applications that will not load and phone numbers that place them on hold for hours.
Republican Senators and Representatives issue statements demanding that California must “turn over” all immigrants and all “antifa operatives” inside city and state government before they send any more relief money. But some of those statements aren’t real. They’re re-shares from influencers and podcasters.
The White House spokesperson says that due to the size of the disaster, elections in California should be postponed, but then seconds later, she implies that L.A. officials are inflating the scale of the damage, and that the quake wasn’t that bad.
A new industry grows online. Influencers charge people for help filling out relief forms. Some provide useful advice. Some steal identities.
Month Two
The rest of the country begins to lose interest.
A new scandal takes over the feeds. The earthquake appears mostly when someone wants to make a political point.
Los Angeles remains filled with damaged roads, closed schools and temporary shelters.
Wealthy neighborhoods hire private crews, private security and private water trucks. Large companies reopen office buildings with their own generators.
Working-class neighborhoods wait for public repairs.
Renters leave for Riverside, Bakersfield, Las Vegas and Phoenix. Families crowd into homes with relatives. Children change schools. Nurses, teachers, cooks, drivers and hotel workers leave the region.
Los Angeles begins losing the people who keep Los Angeles running. Whatever happens now, L.A. is on its way to losing its once-mighty status as the second-largest city in America.
Month Three
Property investors arrive.
They offer cash for damaged homes. Owners facing mortgages, repair bills and denied insurance claims accept low prices because they need money immediately. Whole blocks begin changing hands.
Social media accounts say the earthquake was planned to clear land for developers. The theory grows from a real wave of property buying.
City leaders promise protections. Their messages receive angry replies from every side.
Some residents believe the city is helping developers. Others believe the city is stopping the free market. Others believe the city government no longer exists and every official video is fake.
A viral video shows the mayor at a fancy party on a tropical island, whooping it up and drinking rum with the leaders of socialist countries. Is it real? Probably not. But the people sharing it endlessly don’t care, because it’s a story they enjoy spreading. It doesn’t matter if it’s true. And there’s really no one left to ask.
Month Four
The federal government announces that the emergency phase is over. Los Angeles officials say hundreds of thousands of people still need help.
The White House account posts charts showing billions of dollars sent to California. California accounts post photographs of neighborhoods where little has arrived. Both sets of information contain pieces of the truth.
Official messages appear under Trump’s name every day. Orders are issued. People are fired. Policies change. No one outside a small circle can say who is making the decisions.
The country is used to it. It hardly matters anymore. Without anyone to ask questions, the questions lose importance, and people focus on other things.
Month Five
Los Angeles divides into separate worlds.
The strongest parts of the economy return. Some film studios reopen, but the industry will change irrevocably. Sports arenas hold a few games. Some tourists come back to areas that look familiar, but not nearly in the numbers that came before.
Several miles away, families live in trailers beside the remains of their homes.
Insurance disappears from more neighborhoods. Banks become cautious about mortgages. Small businesses close. Public schools lose students and money. The city’s tax base falls as its needs rise.
Online, people post videos of movie premieres and crowded restaurants as proof that Los Angeles recovered.
Other people post endless blocks of damaged apartments as proof that the whole city is still in ruins.
And both Los Angeleses are real.
Month Six
The official investigation into the federal response releases a report. Hardly anyone reads it.
Right-wing accounts call it a California cover-up. Left-wing accounts call it a White House cover-up. Conspiracy accounts say every person named in the report belongs to the same secret organization. Russian accounts turn selected paragraphs into thousands of angry posts.
The report becomes one more object in the fight.
By now, the country has several different memories of the earthquake.
In one version, Trump saved Los Angeles from corrupt California politicians. In another, Trump allowed thousands to die because he hated the city. In another, the earthquake was a hoax used to steal federal money. In another, the government caused it with new technology that can make earthquakes. In yet another, Trump had vanished before the earthquake, and unknown people used his accounts to run the country.
Each version has videos, witnesses, charts and documents. Each has millions of believers.
What happens to Los Angeles?
Los Angeles survives.
The richest parts rebuild first. Private money brings back studios, office towers, shopping districts and expensive neighborhoods.
Working families carry the heaviest burden. Many leave. Others stay in damaged homes because they have nowhere to go. There is a severe dichotomy to the city now. Some parts look like the aftermath of a war. A few miles away, the rich are still holding parties.
Some neighborhoods spend years waiting for repairs. Temporary housing becomes permanent. Investors buy land from desperate owners. The cost of living rises again as the supply of safe housing falls. The city becomes smaller, older, poorer and more divided.
It also becomes more local.
Neighborhoods build their own emergency networks. Residents learn which voices nearby have earned trust. Amateur radio returns. Someone is printing newsletters and handing them out. Community groups create lists of elderly residents, medical needs, water supplies and safe buildings.
People begin rebuilding trust one block at a time.
But the national wound is still open and bleeding. In fact, it’s just another gaping wound to add to the list.
Americans once watched the same pictures during a disaster. Reporters stood in the wreckage. Officials answered questions. There were live news conferences. The facts changed as rescue workers learned more, and the country could see why they changed.
But in this newsless America, the pictures come without reporters. Claims arrive without questions. Government orders arrive without a president. Every correction looks like a cover-up. Every mistake becomes proof of a plot.
Los Angeles needs water, food, doctors, shelter, and billions of dollars. The country only sends arguments.
Los Angeles is first because it is easy for some people to hate. It’s filled with Democrats, immigrants, movie stars and every other target that can be turned into ragebait. The next city could be Houston after a hurricane, Miami after a flood, or St. Louis after a tornado. Once Americans must prove their political worth before receiving disaster aid, every city is one election away from being left behind.
The earthquake destroyed buildings in less than two minutes. The feeds spend the next six months destroying the idea that Americans owe one another any help at all.